Comprehensive Deep-Dive: 2020 through 2026 | New Customer Acquisition, Funnel Health & Monthly Trajectory
| Year | May NCAC | May New Subs | June NCAC | June New Subs | NCAC Change | Volume Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $215.13 | 6,538 | $221.17 | 6,139 | +2.8% | -6.1% |
| 2024 | $159.32 | 4,068 | $138.23 | 2,683 | -13.2% | -34.0% |
| 2025 | $131.49 | 2,148 | $134.64 | 2,016 | +2.4% | -6.1% |
| 2026 | $163.53 | 1,906 | $168.13 | 1,245 | +2.8% | -34.7% |
| Period | Spend | New Subscriptions | NCAC | NCAC vs Prior Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2023 | $1,432,008 | 5,678 | $252.21 | - |
| July 2023 | $1,403,383 | 4,437 | $316.33 | - |
| June 2024 | $595,526 | 3,447 | $172.76 | -31.5% |
| July 2024 | $351,020 | 2,591 | $135.44 | -57.2% |
| June 2025 | $311,536 | 1,916 | $162.59 | -5.9% |
| July 2025 | $306,253 | 1,846 | $165.90 | +22.5% |
| June 2026 | $209,325 | 1,245 | $168.09 | +3.4% |
| July 2026 (20 days) | $187,687 | 907 | $206.83 | +24.7% |
| July 2026 (projected full) | ~$290,700 | ~1,406 | ~$206.76 | +24.6% |
New subscriptions consistently drop from June to July: 2023 (-21.8%), 2024 (-24.8%), 2025 (-3.7%), 2026 (-27.1% so far). July is not a natural subscription-starting month. NCAC climbs because spend stays relatively stable while new sub volume drops. This is a demand-side issue, not an efficiency issue. The 2026 NCAC is higher YoY largely due to lower total subscription volume at similar spend levels. Key question for the team: is the "New Subscriptions" conversion action capturing all true new customers, or has tracking changed?
In every year with data, NCAC rises from May through July. The steepest escalation was 2023 ($215 to $316, +47%). The 2024 anomaly (NCAC actually dropped May to July) coincided with drastic budget cuts. The 2026 pattern ($164 to $207, +26.2%) falls within the normal range. This escalation is driven by declining seasonal demand, not by bidding inefficiency.
*July 2026 = 20 of 31 days
Summer new subscription volume has declined every year: 16,653 combined May-Jun-Jul in 2023, down to an estimated ~4,557 in 2026. This is driven by two factors: (1) massively reduced ad spend ($4.2M in summer 2023 vs ~$709K in summer 2026), and (2) organic market maturity. NCAC has actually improved despite this volume decline, indicating that the remaining subscribers being acquired are higher-quality and better-targeted.
Impressions dropped 24.6% from May to June, setting the ceiling for everything downstream. The funnel conversion rates actually held relatively steady (click-to-purchase rate only dropped slightly). This confirms the issue is demand volume, not funnel efficiency. The Memorial Day Sale in late May inflated May's numbers, making June's natural seasonal dip look even steeper.
| Year | June Impressions | July Impressions | Jun-Jul Change | June Clicks | July Clicks | Jun-Jul Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 7,275,505 | 8,771,094 | +20.6% | 58,405 | 72,880 | +24.8% |
| 2021 | 22,051,548 | 21,237,093 | -3.7% | 283,342 | 253,260 | -10.6% |
| 2022 | 36,596,940 | 45,482,558 | +24.3% | 361,208 | 371,837 | +2.9% |
| 2023 | 68,568,803 | 69,451,580 | +1.3% | 501,890 | 1,114,779 | +122.1% |
| 2024 | 37,644,084 | 20,139,857 | -46.5% | 267,077 | 163,454 | -38.8% |
| 2025 | 19,559,699 | 12,699,074 | -35.1% | 87,404 | 99,877 | +14.3% |
| 2026* | 6,202,684 | 6,903,556 | +11.3% | 113,897 | 104,264 | -8.5% |
*July 2026 = 20 of 31 days
| Month | Spend | Clicks | Conversions | Conv Value | ROAS | CPA | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $288,078 | 81,012 | 5,355 | $538,815 | 187.0% | $53.79 | - |
| February | $208,119 | 56,523 | 13,404 | $730,092 | 350.8% | $15.53 | ▲ |
| March | $222,608 | 64,193 | 5,628 | $622,548 | 279.7% | $39.55 | ▼ |
| April | $252,505 | 81,140 | 7,842 | $848,820 | 336.2% | $32.20 | ▲ |
| May | $311,537 | 136,693 | 9,133 | $976,414 | 313.5% | $34.11 | ▬ |
| June | $209,325 | 113,897 | 5,680 | $592,202 | 282.9% | $36.85 | ▼ |
| July (1-20)* | $187,687 | 104,264 | 3,973 | $410,008 | 218.5% | $47.24 | ▼ |
| YTD Total | $1,479,859 | 537,722 | 51,015 | $4,718,899 | 318.9% | $29.01 |
*July 2026 = 20 of 31 days
| Month | 2025 Spend | 2026 Spend | YoY | 2025 ROAS | 2026 ROAS | YoY | 2025 CPA | 2026 CPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $247,813 | $288,078 | +16.2% | 242.5% | 187.0% | -22.9% | $42.17 | $53.79 |
| Feb | $226,596 | $208,119 | -8.2% | 243.2% | 350.8% | +44.2% | $44.01 | $15.53 |
| Mar | $254,907 | $222,608 | -12.7% | 231.0% | 279.7% | +21.1% | $46.03 | $39.55 |
| Apr | $269,202 | $252,505 | -6.2% | 215.6% | 336.2% | +55.9% | $52.97 | $32.20 |
| May | $306,195 | $311,537 | +1.7% | 167.1% | 313.5% | +87.6% | $67.19 | $34.11 |
| Jun | $311,536 | $209,325 | -32.8% | 157.2% | 282.9% | +80.0% | $73.11 | $36.85 |
| Jul | $306,253 | $187,687* | -38.7% | 194.9% | 218.5%* | +12.1% | $75.98 | $47.24* |
*July 2026 = 20 of 31 days
Despite lower absolute spend, 2026 ROAS exceeds 2025 in every comparable month (March through July). CPA is lower across the board. The "dip" in July 2026 is relative to June 2026, not relative to prior years. Compared to July 2025, the current trajectory is +12.1% better on ROAS and -37.8% better on CPA.